Choosing between what is right and what India believes is right for itself!

Russia's war on Ukraine is on its eighteenth day and a lot has taken place since it started. The future course of events is unclear at this time, but the consequences and risks to the world, particularly India, are apparent. The invasion of Ukraine has put India in an unenviable position having to choose between what is right and what it believes is right for itself. The most pressing question at the moment is what this war means for India. The answers to these questions are a bit hazy, but the need of the hour is to explore the situation we may face and why the European crisis is a plight for us.

1) India has a close, privileged partnership with Russia which is a major supplier of defence hardware and a supporter on international platforms. India continues to rely on Russia for major defence supplies. The S-400 contract with Russia is still in the talks, and is expected to bolster India's security on its northern frontiers. At the same time, over the past two decades, India's relation with the US has also transformed to a great extent and India sees it as the most important strategic relationship, especially in the wake of the Chinese aggression. Furthermore, being a part of the Quad, both India and US have the same vision for the Indo pacific region. The dilemma is that both the US and Russia want our neutral, impartial backing in order to take a clear stance on the Ukraine conflict. It appears like India as a nation is being torn apart here. Both the US and Russia are equally important to India, and when it comes to making a decision, the only country that will be in a state of uncertainty would be India, which, by favouring one, would lose the support of the other.

2) India abstained from voting at the recent United Nations Security Council session, refusing to condemn Russia's invasion attempts. The question now is whether this action has tarnished India's image. Russia has praised India's UN stance, while the US President has said that India is a two-faced country with "unresolved differences." This has certainly put a strain on Indo-US relations, which is concerning. India appears to be the only member of the Quad that has not openly condemned Russia's actions. As a result, there have been a number of disagreements and divergent viewpoints inside the Quad, which could make it weaker and less cohesive.

3) As the battle progresses and the crisis takes shape, India may face further difficulties and complications. By annexing the Donbas region, Russia has divided Ukraine and is poised to destabilize the government and establish a pro-Russian puppet regime. In the midst of all of this, Russia would expect India's backing, and deciding whether or not to do so would be a difficult decision. The unpredictability of the situation on our border with China would make the decision even more onerous.

4) India also has a waiver for the S-400 missile system under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). India's relationship with America is bound to deteriorate if it continues to abstain and not condemn Russia. This raises the question of whether India would be given the waiver.

5) When it comes to the war's long-term consequences, Russia's reliance on China is bound to grow significantly. The more sanctions the West imposes on Russia, the more it will rely on China, thereby strengthening their relationship, which could lead to Russia shifting its stance on the India-China and India-Pakistan conflicts. The majority of Russian military equipment imported to India is aimed at China and Pakistan, and it's understandable that China would put pressure on Russia to halt and Russia would be forced to abide by that. Russia's growing proximity to China will not help matters. 

So far, Moscow has not allowed its proximity to Beijing impair relations with India, but the situation may change if India lets its proximity to the West, affect its stance on Russia. 

6) The worst-case scenario for India would be if the US comes to the conclusion that it confronts a greater threat from Russia. This would necessitate a strategic accommodation with China, allowing China to expand its dominance in Asia while preserving itself. If this happens, India will be on its own in the face of China and Pakistan, with no help from either the US or Russia politically. 

India is balancing on a precarious tightrope, upon which we cannot trod for a long time. 

The question now is whether India should make a choice between Russia and the West and if yes, which side to choose. Is the US a better friend to go for? Was abstention from voting against Russia at UNSC the right move?

I haven't forgotten my country's history and I shall never.
The West is trying to chastise the world's largest democracy, India and summoning it to take a particular stand. Well! I believe India's position is rather clear. This war is a western creation with no direct relation or connection to India. We did not cause the war and so India is not going to fight a battle with Russia or with any other country. Russia is our long-standing ally and we can't abandon it. We need to ensure that it remains on our side to focus on the larger problem closer to home - challenges posed by China. At the same time, however, war in any way is wrong. Without being condemnatory, India must let it be known that it is opposed to the unilateral use of military force and violation of sovereignty which are central to a rules based order which India seeks in its region. It has always called for diplomacy and dialogue to settle disputes and India's abstention was neither an endorsement of Russian military action against Ukraine nor a recognition of the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. So, the best stand for India is to watch out for itself. We should choose OUR SIDE and concentrate on the quick evacuation of Indian citizens from Ukraine.

As the Prime minister says, self-reliance (Aatmanirbharta) is vital.